Geopolitical events
On July 8, 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump officially terminated the memorandum of understanding with Iran, effectively ending the interim ceasefire following retaliatory U.S. airstrikes in the Strait of Hormuz. The diplomatic collapse triggered an immediate 5% surge in global oil prices and prompted the International Monetary Fund to downgrade its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.0%. Market volatility intensified as the U.S. Treasury simultaneously revoked all remaining Iranian oil export waivers, citing the need to "impose heavy costs" for maritime disruptions.